Time to take stock of where the global economy is heading in 2024. And to formulate sound investment strategies.

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The United States

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to go down to 1.5% in 2024 from 2.1% in 2023. I think recession concerns in the U.S. are still there for 2024. Most are expecting by the end of the first half of the year.

But to be honest, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be severe. Rate hikes seemed to be over from the Fed. While the conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine are still going on, the U.S. will probably still weather these conditions quite well. The only concern now is the presidential election. It’s going to be chaotic.

China

China is interesting. GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.2% in 2024 from 5.0% in 2023. This represents one of the lowest ‘normal’ growths that China has experienced. For context, China is used to growth of 6% to 9% in the last 3 decades. Going down to 4.2% is a sign that not all is well in the world’s second-largest economy. It is dealing with the fallouts from a crashed property market, tensions with the biggest economy in the world, and weak consumer confidence. The last point on consumer confidence is more concerning as it exposes deep-seated problems such as expensive housing and a weak job market.

Europe

Growth is projected to rise to 1.2% in 2024 from 0.7% in 2023. The countries driving that higher growth – Germany and France. That is good news for a region that has been hit by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Its gas markets have been in turmoil ever since and remain a problem today.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has also communicated that inflation has eased significantly and paused its interest rate hikes. It remains to be seen however whether the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will come to an end in 2024. It seems like it will be around for a long while.

Malaysia

Hurray, Malaysia’s GDP growth is projected to rise from 4.0% in 2023 to … 4.3% in 2024. This is certainly not a bad growth projection but the fact remains that there is not much to drive Malaysia’s growth in 2024.

And we should be concerned if we have investments in Malaysia. A continued reliance on foreign direct investment is evident even from Anwar’s reign. He courted investments from China and is a throwback to ‘the more things change, the more they stay the same’. I have yet to see a concerted focus on building homegrown economies and industries even after all these years.